HESS Hydrology and Earth System Sciences HESS Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 1607-7938 Copernicus Publications Göttingen, Germany 10.5194/hess-13-183-2009 Climate model based consensus on the hydrologic impacts of climate change to the Rio Lempa basin of Central America Maurer E. P. 1 Adam J. C. 2 Wood A. W. 3 Civil Engineering Department, Santa Clara University, Santa Clara, CA, USA Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman WA, USA 3Tier Group, Seattle, WA, USA 18 02 2009 13 2 183 194 Copyright: © 2009 E. P. Maurer et al. 2009 This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/ This article is available from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/13/183/2009/hess-13-183-2009.html The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/13/183/2009/hess-13-183-2009.pdf

Temperature and precipitation from 16 climate models each using two emissions scenarios (lower B1 and mid-high A2) were used to characterize the range of potential climate changes for the Rio Lempa basin of Central America during the middle (2040–2069) and end (2070–2099) of the 21st century. A land surface model was applied to investigate the hydrologic impacts of these changes, focusing on inflow to two major hydropower reservoirs. By 2070–2099 the median warming relative to 1961–1990 was 1.9°C and 3.4°C under B1 and A2 emissions, respectively. For the same periods, the models project median precipitation decreases of 5.0% (B1) and 10.4% (A2). Median changes by 2070–2099 in reservoir inflow were 13% (B1) and 24% (A2), with largest flow reductions during the rising limb of the seasonal hydrograph, from June through September. Frequency of low flow years increases, implying decreases in firm hydropower capacity of 33% to 53% by 2070–2099.

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