Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 739–752, 2007

Special issue: Uncertainties in hydrological observations

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 739–752, 2007

  17 Jan 2007

17 Jan 2007

Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations

F. Pappenberger1,*, K. Frodsham2, K. Beven1,**, R. Romanowicz1, and P. Matgen3 F. Pappenberger et al.
  • 1Hydrology and Fluid Dynamics Group, Environmental Science, Lancaster University, Lancaster, LA1 4YQ, UK
  • 2JBA Consulting, The Brew House Wilderspool Park, Greenall's Avenue Warrington WA4 6HL UK
  • 3Département en Environnement et Agro-Biotechnologies, Centre de Recherche Public Gabriel Lippmann, Luxembourg
  • *now at: the European Centre For Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, UK
  • **currently at: Geocentrum, Uppsala University, Villavägen 16, 75236 Uppsala, Sweden

Abstract. The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the evaluation methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation.