Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1279–1294, 2007

Special issue: Hydrological Prediction Uncertainty

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1279–1294, 2007

  03 May 2007

03 May 2007

Development of the MESH modelling system for hydrological ensemble forecasting of the Laurentian Great Lakes at the regional scale

A. Pietroniro1, V. Fortin2, N. Kouwen3, C. Neal4, R. Turcotte5, B. Davison6, D. Verseghy7, E. D. Soulis3, R. Caldwell8, N. Evora9, and P. Pellerin2 A. Pietroniro et al.
  • 1Water Science and Technology Directorate, Environment Canada, National Hydrology Research Center, Saskatoon SK Canada S7N 3H5, Canada
  • 2Recherche en Prévision Numérique, Meteorological Research Division, Environment Canada, Canadian Meteorological Center Dorval QC Canada H9P 1J3, Canada
  • 3Department of Civil Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo ON Canada N2L 3G1, Canada
  • 4Hydrological Applications and Services, Meteorological Service of Canada, Ottawa ON Canada K1N 1A1, Canada
  • 5Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec, Ministère du Développement durable, de l'Environnement et des Parcs, Gouvernement du Québec Quebec City QC Canada G1R 5V7, Canada
  • 6Hydrometeorology and Arctic Laboratory, Meteorological Service of Canada, National Hydrology Research Center, Saskatoon SK Canada S7N 3H5, Canada
  • 7Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Toronto ON Canada M3H 5T4, Canada
  • 8Great Lakes – St. Lawrence Regulation Office, Meteorological Service of Canada, Cornwall ON Canada K6H 6S2, Canada
  • 9Institut de recherche d'Hydro-Québec, Varennes QC Canada J3X 1S1, Canada

Abstract. Environment Canada has been developing a community environmental modelling system (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – MEC), which is designed to facilitate coupling between models focusing on different components of the earth system. The ultimate objective of MEC is to use the coupled models to produce operational forecasts. MESH (MEC – Surface and Hydrology), a configuration of MEC currently under development, is specialized for coupled land-surface and hydrological models. To determine the specific requirements for MESH, its different components were implemented on the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed, situated on the Canada-US border. This experiment showed that MESH can help us better understand the behaviour of different land-surface models, test different schemes for producing ensemble streamflow forecasts, and provide a means of sharing the data, the models and the results with collaborators and end-users. This modelling framework is at the heart of a testbed proposal for the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) which should allow us to make use of the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) to improve streamflow forecasts of the Great Lakes tributaries, and demonstrate how MESH can contribute to a Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS).