A Regionalised Neyman-Scott Model of Rainfall with Convective and Stratiform Cells

Abstract. A single-site Neyman-Scott Poisson cluster model of rainfall, with convective and stratiform cells, is fitted to data for 112 sites scattered throughout the UK using harmonic variables to account for seasonality. The model is regionalised by regressing the estimates of the harmonic variables on site dependent variables (e.g. altitude) to enable rainfall to be simulated at any ungauged site in the UK. An assessment of the residual errors indicates that the regression models can be used with reasonable confidence for urban sites. Furthermore, the regional variations of the model parameter estimates are found to be in agreement with meteorological knowledge and observation. Simulated I h extreme rainfalls are found to compare favourably with observed historical values, although some lack-of-fit is evident for higher aggregation levels.